Tuesday Newsletter time: Lockout gives Texas Rangers more time to weigh Nathaniel Lowe's future
A trade for Matt Olson makes a lot of sense at first base, but Lowe fits the rebuild model.
If you’re the kind of person who is into anniversaries — who isn’t? — then you know that Friday was the one-year anniversary of the Texas Rangers acquiring first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
As memory serves, he did his Zoom call with the media from what appeared to be a golf course, though I didn’t call him out on it. He might have had some money riding on the next hole and didn’t need anything else on his mind.
There was also a call with president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, who indicated that Lowe was acquired to be the Rangers’ first baseman and that Ronald Guzman had some work to do to make the Opening Day roster.
Both did. Guzman had the better spring stats, and to be honest it wasn’t close, but the Rangers liked what they saw from Lowe in terms of his routine and how he prepared for a season, so they thought he was the better choice.
An in-season competition never developed, as Guzman tore up his knee within the first two weeks of the season. Lowe played darn near every day for the first time as a major-leaguer, and some flaws were exposed but some of his strengths stood out.
He is penciled in as the first baseman for 2022. It would be in ink if the Oakland A’s weren’t willing to trade away Matt Olson, an All-Star and Gold Glove winner at first.
After all the spending the Rangers did leading up to the lockout, most significantly adding shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien, they showed that they have money to spend and also created a logjam of middle-infield prospects in the minors.
It’s a perfect formula for a trade.
Every team in baseball needs Olson. The New York Yankees want Olson, and they have the prospects and money to also swing a deal. The Atlanta Braves would need a first baseman if they don’t re-sign Freddie Freeman.
For the Rangers, staying true to the rebuild model calls for young, affordable players holding down key spots in the lineup. That’s especially so in the rotation, which is why the Rangers aren’t going all-in this offseason on arms.
Lowe isn’t eligible for salary arbitration, meaning he will make the league minimum in 2022 and maybe beyond depending on how the next collective bargaining agreement shakes out.
Olson can be a free agent after 2023.
Also, Lowe is allowed to get better. What he was in 2021 might not be who he is going forward. Now, can he double his home runs and improve his defense to level of Olson?
Maybe, but it seems unlikely.
So, the Rangers have some thinking to do and some numbers to crunch, more than they’ve already done. They have time do to that during the lockout.
This is something to watch once the owners and players start playing nice again.
Lockout fallout
With the owners and players not even scheduled for a meeting to resolve their differences, it looks like those who took the over on the length of the lockout are probably feeling pretty good right about now.
But it’s early in this game of chicken. The guess here is that the sides get back to work in earnest after the holidays with the goal of having a new CBA in place by Feb. 1.
Both sides don’t want to lose any games from the regular-season schedule, of course. But it seems like the players have more at risk.
The union is trying to make life better for the players via wage increases and the chance to make more money earlier in their careers. The union is looking out for the players.
However, there are many free agents still looking for jobs for 2022. The union needs to allow time for them to sign the best deals possible, not just rush into their contracts. The union also needs to make sure players have ample time to prepare for the season to avoid the rash of injuries that hit them last year in trying to ramp up for the 60-game COVID-shortened season.
If the union doesn’t do that, it’s failing its players.
Owners don’t want to see their teams affected by injuries, and all that money they have invested in players end up on the injured list. The Rangers, for instance, would want fans to come see Seager and Semien play at Globe Life Field, and that would be jeopardized by a shortened spring training.
This public splat is all fun and games until some gets an eye poked out, or a torn elbow ligament or pulled hamstring.
Taveras wows defensively
The bat is the biggest thing that must click for Leody Taveras to be an everyday major-league center fielder, and he is hitting well through 36 games in for Aguilas in the Dominican Winter League.
Everyone already knows the defense is terrific, and it has been on display of late.
Taveras has seven assists in just 36 games and is making catches that others at the position just don’t make. Looking at videos of some of the plays, he appears to be playing a shallow center field as some of the greats at the position did and do.
The spacious Globe Life Field doesn’t necessarily allow that, but Taveras glides back on balls as well as anyone.
Here are a couple of the plays.
Doggy video!
Watch out for the fence! Enjoy. See you Wednesday.
I feel that if the price on the proven All-Star Olson is right, you have to make that move. He will be an upgrade over Lowe offensively and defensively and you know what you're getting.
With that being said, I believe Lowe still has quite a bit of potential. He has something the Rangers lineup sorely needs more of: plate discipline. His 12.5% walk rate in 2021 was well above league average and the best among current Rangers (including Seager and Semien). His 25.2% strikeout rate was only slightly worse than league average (24%) in 2021 and I believe can be improved upon with a year of experience under his belt and the help of the new hitting coaches.
As most Ranger fans are aware, Lowe struggled to hit high velocity. The biggest improvement the SF Giants made under Donnie Ecker was hitting the fastball better. The Giants as a team crushed fastballs last season. If anyone can fix Lowe's problem there it would seem to be Ecker.
Lastly, I want to point out Lowe was in the 91st percentile in max exit velo, 77th percentile in average exit velo and 74% in hard hit rate. He has legit power. This is where his second big weakness shows up; hitting the ball on the ground too much. If Lowe can elevate the ball more, he hits it more than hard enough, often enough, to see a major spike in his power numbers.
Again, if the price is right on Olson, I think you go get the proven star. There is reason for optimism with Lowe if that doesn't come together, though.
Jeff, what is your opinion on the Nathaniel Lowe/Matt Olson conundrum?
What might be a "reasonable" trade scenario for Olson? Would Lowe, Solak, 3X middle infield prospects not named Justin Foscue get the A's interest? Is that too much?
I love the thought of Olson in powder blue Ranger gear signed to a multi-year extension and the Rangers with the best infield in baseball, but cheap(inexpensive) 1B gives you tons of options.